国际贸易及其对中国经济增长的影响外文翻译.doc

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Internation Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in China 出 处： IZA DP No. 5151 （2010） 作 者： Peng Sun and Almas Heshmati 原 文：International Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in ChinaABSTRACTInternational trade, as a major factor of openness, has made an increasingly significa

2、nt contribution to economic growth Chinese international trade has experienced rapid expansion together with its dramatic economic growth which has made the country to target the world as its market. This research discusses the role of international trade in Chinas economic growth. It starts with a

3、review of conceptions as well as the evolution of Chinas international trade regime and the policy that China has taken in favor of trade sectors. In addition, Chinas international trade performance is analyzed extensively. This research then evaluates the effects of international trade on Chinas ec

4、onomic growth through examining improvement in productivity. Both econometric and non-parametric approaches are applied based on a 6-year balanced panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2002 to 2007. For the econometric approach, a stochastic frontier production function is estimated and province

5、specific determinants of inefficiency in trade identified. For the non-parametric approach, the Divisia index of each province/region is calculated to be used as the benchmark. The study demonstrates that increasing participation in the global trade helps China reap the static and dynamic benefits,

6、stimulating rapid national economic growth Both international trade volume and trade structure towards high-tech exports result in positive effects on Chinas regional productivity. The eastern region of China has been developing most rapidly while the central and western provinces have been lagging

7、behind in terms of both economic growth and participation in international trade. Policy implications are drawn from the empirical results accordingly.1. IntroductionChinas international trade has experienced rapid expansion together with its dramatic economic growth which has made the country targe

8、t the world as its market. The stable political system, vast natural resources and abundant skilled labor in China have made it a modern global factory. Discussions of the role that international trade plays in promoting economic growth and productivity in particular, have been ongoing since several

9、 decades ago.A core finding from the comprehensive literature shows that internationally active countries tend to be more productive than countries which only produce for the domestic market. Due to liberalization and globalization,a countrys economy has become much more closely associated with exte

10、rnal factors such as openness. Thus, conducting a study on the effects of international trade on economic growth is of great significance in this globalized era.It helps policymakers map out appropriate policies by determining the source of productivity growth with respect to international trade. Si

11、nce the initiation of economic reforms and the adoption of the open door policy, international trade and Chinas economy have experienced dramatic growth. Chinas integration into the global economy has largely contributed to its sustained economic growth. Some of the industries with comparative advan

12、tages began to acquire a high level of specialization, and China has achieved a high growth rate of GDP, as well as an enormous inflow of hard currency and increase in employment. Additionally, Chinas participation in international trade has also contributed to improvement in productivity of domesti

13、c industries and advancement of technology. On one hand, large imports of machinery goods in the early 1990s had an immediate impact on productivity through the application of technology embodied in them. On the other hand, the level of science and technology in China increased dramatically due to t

14、he effect of “learning by doing.” Therefore, research on how international trade contributed to Chinas economic growth can serve as a distinguishing case study demonstrating how a latecomer catches up with forerunners by increasing its participation on the global stage. This research starts with lit

15、erature review from the perspective of international trade effect on economic growth in part 2. In part 3, the theoretical model and estimation procedures of this research are discussed respectively. Both econometric and non-parametric approaches are applied in this research. The data and variables

16、used in this research are explained in part 4. The characteristics of a 6-year balanced panel data of 31 provinces/regions of China from 2002 to 2007 are discussed, followed by the analysis of each variable in the model. Part 5 presents empirical results according to the model constructed in this re

17、search by offering an in-depth explanation of each coefficient and comparison with the previous pieces of research. In part 6 and 7, policy implications and the main conclusion are drawn respectively.2. Literature ReviewEmpirically, there appears to be good evidence that international trade affects

18、economic growth positively by facilitating capital accumulation, industrial structure upgrading, technological progress and institutional advancement. Specifically, increased imports of capital and intermediate products, which are not available in the domestic market, may result in the rise in produ

19、ctivity of manufacturing. More active participation in the international market by promoting exports leads to more intense competition and improvement in terms of productivity. Learning-by-doing may be more rapid in export industry thanks to the knowledge and technology spillover effects. In additio

20、n, the benefits of international trade are mainly generated from the external environment, appropriate trade strategy and structure of trade patterns.There are comprehensive empirical studies on the impact of trade on economic growth. Before the 1960s, research on trade effects was limited to a few

21、specific countries. With the development of econometrics, however, many complicated methods based on a mathematical model were introduced to analyze the interactive impact between trade and economic growth. So far, the discussions in this area have been generally divided into two categories. One foc

22、uses on the causality relationship between international trade and economic growth to examine whether economic growth is propelled by international trade or vice versa. The other mainly discusses the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth. The OECD conducted a study on the impact that trad

23、e had on the average income per population. According to the result, the elasticity of international trade was 0.2, which was statistically significant.Maizels discussed the positive relationship between international trade and economic development by a rank correlation analysis among 7 developed co

24、untries. Kavoussi (1984), after studying 73 middle and low-income developing countries, found out that higher rates of economic growth was strongly correlated with higher rates of export growth. He showed that the positive correlation between exports and growth holds for both middle- and low-income

25、countries, but the effects tend to diminish according to the level of development.Balassa and Dollar argued that outward-oriented developing economies achieve indeed much more rapid growth than inward-oriented developing ones.Sachs and Warner constructed a policy index to analyze economic growth rat

26、e, and found that the average growth rate in the period after trade liberalization is significantly higher than that in the period before liberalization. Kraay investigated whether firms “learn” from exporting using a panel data of 2105 Chinese industrial enterprises between 1988 and 1992, and found

27、 the “learning” effects are most pronounced among established exporters. Keller discussed that international trade which involves importing intermediate goods of a high quality contributed to the diffusion of technology. Frankel and Romer constructed measures of the geographic component of countries

28、 trade, and used those measures to obtain instrumental variables estimates of the effect of trade on income.The resultshowed that trade has a quantitatively large and robust positive effect on income even though it is only moderately significant statistically. Coe and Helpman studied the internation

29、al R&D diffusion among 21 OECD countries and Israel over the period of 1971-1990, and found that international trade is an important channel of transferring technology. In sum, most empirical studies support the positive effects of openness on economic growth. From the comprehensive literature, both

30、 static and dynamic gains from trade could be found. The static gains from international trade refer to the improvement in output or social welfare with fixed amount of input or resource supply. They are mainly the results from the increase in foreign reserves and national welfare. Firstly, opening

31、up to the global market offers an opportunity to trade at international prices rather than domestic prices. This opportunity provides a gain from exchange, as domestic consumers can buy cheaper imported goods and producers can export goods at higher foreign prices. Furthermore, there is a gain from

32、specialization. The new prices established in free trade encourage industries to reallocate production from goods that the closed economy was producing at a relatively high cost to goods that it was producing at a relatively low cost .By utilizing its comparative advantage in international trade, a

33、country could increase the total output and social welfare. Another long-term benefit of trade is the dynamic gain. This refers to the change in production structure thanks to the adoption of new technologies from abroad and an increase in the production scale. Firstly,international trade sectors ba

34、sed on comparative advantage always enjoy the economies of scale through the expansion in production stimulated by the massive demand from the global market. This results in the decrease of production costs, a large amount of accumulation of capital and increase in employment. Secondly, internationa

35、l trade is one of the channels supporting technological spillovers among countries which results in a favorable impact on the productivity level (Saggi, 2000). Endogenous growth of an open economy is achieved through “learning by doing” which exhibits diffusion of technology across goods and countri

36、es.International trade, which transmits knowledge internationally, could increase the absorptive capacity of trading countries by promoting technological advancement. Increased productivity is also achieved through practice and innovation. Finally, international trade leads to robust institutional c

37、hanges. International trade not only facilitates trading of goods and services, but also ideas on market mechanisms. Developing countries are learning to apply market power more efficiently with less intervention from government to increase openness. Especially in bilateral and multilateral trade, p

38、articipants should fulfill their commitments to international rules and regulations to bridge the gap between developed countries.3. Chinas Trade3.1 Evolution of Chinas International Trade Policy Some of the unprecedented development in the Chinese trade sectors and trade policy also had various eff

39、ects on the nations economic growth. Targeting the global market, China has successfully converted itself from an inward-oriented country which was protected by various trade policies to an outward-oriented one with an open market. The transition from a closed economy to an open one accompanied with

40、 it various experiences. From the perspective of trade policy, China underwent a number of evolution periods, such as dependence on the Soviet Union, absolute isolation, and opening doors to the world. WTO accession,which represents a new milestone in Chinas trade evolution, enabled China to partici

41、pate in the world trade under the global framework by improving the multilateral trade system. Before 1978, Chinas planned economic strategy and inward-oriented policy resulted in the subordinate status of international trade in the national economy. China had only minimal trade with the outside wor

42、ld, exporting just surplus raw materials and simple manufactured goods to cover payments for imported goods,including strategic minerals and other necessities not available in the domestic market. 译 文：国际贸易及其对中国经济增长的影响摘要国际贸易作为开放性的一个主要因素，对经济增长的贡献日益显著。中国的对外贸易经历了快速扩张和巨大的经济增长，已经成为了世界各国的市场目标。本研究探讨了国际贸易对中国

43、经济增长的作用。中国在贸易领域所采取的政策始于中国的对外贸易制度以及概念审查的演变。此外，还对中国的国际贸易变下进行了广泛地分析。计量经济方法和非参数方法的应用基于2002至2007这6年来中国的31个省平衡面板数据。对于计量经济方法，由生产函数估计和贸易效率确定具体省份的决定因素。而非参数方法，以每个省份或地区的研究指数计算作为基准。这项研究表明，增加全球贸易的参与可以帮助中国获得更多的静态效益和动态效应，促进国民经济地快速增长。无论是国际贸易数量还是贸易结构都对中国区域生产力的高技术产品的出口产生了积极地作用。相对于中国东部地区经济的迅速发展，中部和西部地区在经济增长和国际贸易的参与方面非

44、常落后。相应的实证结果是进行调整政策的依据。1说明中国对外贸易经历了快速扩张及巨大的经济增长，已经使该国成为了世界各国的市场目标。中国拥有稳定的政治系统，丰富的自然资源和大量的技术劳工，使其成为了现代世界工厂。国际贸易对促进经济增长，特别是生产力增长的作用的讨论已经持续十几年了。一个来自综合文献的核心研究表明：在国际上活跃的国家比只为国内市场生产的国家更有效率。由于自由化和国际化，一个国际的经济已经变得跟外部因素更加密切，如开放性。因此，在全球化时代进行一项关于国际贸易对经济增长影响的研究是具有重要意义的。本研究透过审核生产率的提高对国际贸易对中国经济增长的研究进行评估。它帮助决策制定者确定政

45、策通过有关国际贸易生产率的增长。自经济开放政策改革以来，对外贸易和中国的经济增长经历了戏剧化的增长。融入全球经济一体化在很大程度上促成了中国经济持续增长。一些具有比较优势的行业专业化程度增强，中国已经实现了国内生产总值地快速增长，而且硬通货流入巨大、就业增加。此外，中国参与国际贸易也促进了国内产业技术的进步和生产力的提高。一方面，大量进口的机械产品在90年代初通过技术的应用对生产力具有直接影响。另一方面，中国的科学技术水平因“边干边学”效应得到显著增强。因此，研究国际贸易如何促使中国的经济增长可以作为一个案例来说明后来者如何增强在世界舞台上的参与力。文献在第二部分开始探讨国际贸易对经济增长影响

46、的研究。在第三部分，对理论模型和研究估计程序分别进行了讨论。在文献中应用了计量经济和非参数的方法。以上得来的数据并在研究中使用的变量在第四部分做出了解释。对中国2002年至2007年这6年的31个省份或地区的平衡面板数据的特点进行了讨论，其次是分析模型中的每个变量。第五部分介绍了实证的结果，把从研究中得出的每个系数与研究之前的作品进行比较，作出深入的解释模型。在第六和第七部分，分别绘制研究的主要结论和政策的影响。 2文献回顾 根据经验，有充分的证据表明国际贸易对经济增长、资本积累、产业结构的升级、科技的进步和制度的进步有影响。具体来说，不能在国内市场上增加中间产品的资本，进口可能导致制造业生产

47、率的上升。而且通过参加国际市场，导致出口可以改善在生产力方面有更多的激烈市场竞争。边学边做可能比迅速出口产业的技术知识溢出效应更加有益。此外，国际贸易带来的好处是适当的贸易战略和贸易方式结构的外部环境。这是贸易对经济增长的影响的综合研究的实证分析。在20世纪60年代之前，对贸易影响的研究仅限于少数特定的国家。随着计量经济学的发展，许多基于数学模型的复杂的分析方法介绍了贸易和经济增长之间的相互影响。到目前为止，这方面的研究大致分为两类。一方面侧重研究对外贸易和经济增长的因果关系检查对外贸易是否推动经济增长，反之亦然。另一方面主要讨论外贸对经济增长的贡献。OECD组织进行了一项关于贸易对人均收入的

48、影星啊的研究。根据调查结果表明：国际贸易弹性为0.2具有统计学意义。Maizels 讨论了国际贸易对经济增长的积极影响的关系分析通过7个发达国家之间的相关等级。Kavoussi在研究中发现73个中低等收入的发展中国家，随着经济地迅速增长使得出口贸易也快速增长。他表示：在中低等国家出口和经济增长呈正相关，但效果削弱的程度依据发展水平。Balassa和Dollar认为外向型经济发展比内向型经济发展更加迅速。Sachs和Warner用一个政策指数分析经济增长的速度，发现了在贸易自由化后的经济平均增长速度明显高于贸易自由化之前。Kraay从1988年到1992年之间的中国出口工业的企业的面板数据调查公

49、司是否有“学习”，发现了出口商的“学习”效果最明显。Keller讨论了涉及进口高品质中间产品的国际贸易促进技术水平。Frankel和Romer 构造了各国的贸易地理成分的措施，并利用这些措施获取了贸易对收入的估计变量影响。结果表明：巨大的贸易数量对收入产生了积极地影响 虽然它只有中等程度的显著差异。Coe和Helpman研究在1971-1990年期间的21个OECD的国家和以色列国家的贸易，发现国际贸易是技术转让的重要渠道。总之，大多数实证研究支持开放贸易对经济增长具有积极的影响。从综合文献看，可以发现贸易的静态效应和动态效应得增加。国际贸易的静态收益指出改进输出或社会福利需要提供固定数额的社会福利。它们主要来自外汇储备和国家福利的增加。首先，开放的全球市场为国际价格而不是