人民币升值外文译文.doc

1、中国货币：经济问题分析概述诸多经济学家争论着人民币升值是有助于恢复世界经济平衡的一个重要因素。他们还敦促中国实施政策使消费者要求，而非出口和固定资产投资，这一主要经济增长来源。有人认为人民币升值是促进中国进口额的一种方式，可以促成全球经济的快速复苏。中国官员承认再平衡经济的需求，他们强烈反对国际上对升值和通货的压力，称之为“贸易保护主义”。有人把这一政策归于关心中国政府实施政策改变过快导致社会不稳定。 当奥巴马政权已迫使中国升值其货币时，也鼓励它继续购买美国国债。截止2010年7月中国共持有8470亿美元国债，是美国最大的国债持有国。一些分析显示尽管中国的货币升值能够推动美国对中国的出口，它也

2、可以减少中国购买美国国债的需要，能够提高美国的利率。这将导致中国制造产品提高对美国消费者的价格，同样提高对于中国制造的输入美国公司生产他们产品的价格。诸多经济学家分析，即使中国显著地升值其货币，美国也仍需增加其储备并减少国内需求（特别是预算赤字），为了减少长期的贸易不平衡，中国将不得不降低其储备并增加消费。 中国货币的历史背景在1994年之前，中国保持着双重汇率制度。由一个官方的固定汇率制度（由政府使用）和由进出口商在外汇掉期市场使用的一篮子货币制度所构成，尽管为了进口管制极大地限制了外汇所得，导致出现大规模外汇黑市。这两个汇率有显著区别。1993年官方兑美元汇率为5.77元与此相对的是外汇掉

3、期市场上的8.7元。中国的双重汇率制度（以及其他政策）因限制了中国在外国方面的进口而受美国批评。1994年，中国政府统一了两种汇率制度，最初为兑美元8.7元，最后到1997年为止被允许升值到8.28并相对稳定到2005年7月。人民币在活期存款（交易）的基础上变得可自由兑换，但非固定资产账户，这意味着元对于投资目的而言不是通常可以获得的。自1994年至2005年，中国维持了人民币紧盯美元政策意图给中国的外贸和投资改善相对稳定的环境（这个政策防止汇率的大波动）一个许多发展中国家在它们发展初级阶段所使用的政策。中国中央人民银行通过为新印刷的元买入（或卖出）同等以美元计价的资产作为交换，消除过度需求元

4、（或供给元）来维持这一固定汇率。因此，美元对人民币的汇率基本保持不变，尽管可能会转变经济要素，否则会引起人民币相对美元的升值（或贬值）。在浮动汇率机制下，对两国商品和资产的相关需求将决定人民币对美元的汇率。汇率传递的角色 另一个需要考虑的因素是尝试评估人民币升值对贸易往来的影响，研究价格如何转嫁或分配。如果人民币兑美元升值，并非所有价格增加因其升值可能被转嫁到美国消费者。其中一些会被中国劳动力，生产商或出口商和一些美国进口商，批发商和零售商等等所吸收。按照美国劳动部门从2005年7月至2008年7月统计，美国从中国2005年7月至2008年7月的进口指数增长5.2%（同比美国非石油产品的进口指

5、数增长13.2%），这将表明人民币升值转嫁给美国消费者的价格增加是很少的。如果价格没有完全地通过消费者转嫁，那么中国进口的消费者需求将低于实际需求，其他一切相同。 近期人民币发展 中国领导人们已表示强烈反对在他们货币政策上的外在压力，称之为是对中国的国内经济政策的一种保护和干涉形式，有人质疑中国货币是否一直被低估了。然而，在2010年6月19号，中国央行即中国中央人民银行（PBC）说，基于现阶段经济条件，已决定“进一步改革人民币汇率制度增强人民币汇率机制的灵活性。”排除任何一次性大评估， “为避免大量且密集的人民币汇率波动这十分重要，”在某种程度上一边与中国公司能够更容易的适应（例如通过改良升

6、级）货币升值。很多观察者认为这次人民币的调整宣布时机是为了防止中国货币政策成为在2010年6月26至27日于多伦多举行的G-20峰会的焦点。 2010年6月22日，在之前一天人民币兑美元升值0.43%为6.80元，同时这是自2005年7月改革实施以来当日升值最大的一次。然而，在接下来的一天6月23日人民币贬值到6.81元。如图3所示是人民币汇率对美元在过去几个月的涨跌，但总体上，至道2010年10月1日升值了1.9%，大部分升值发生在9月。一些分析认为2010年9月的货币升值相比经济条件更重要的是中国人关心国会对货币可能的行动。来源: 中国银行备注: 截止（周五）时中间汇率. 2010年.基于

7、人民币升值对贸易往来和赤字影响的争论，许多政策决策者可能期望如果中国显著地升值其货币，美国出口至中国将增加，来自中国的进口将下跌，美国贸易赤字在相对短时期内将下降。例如，C弗雷德伯格斯坦认为以人民币为市场基础将会降低美国每年1000亿至1500亿的活期账户赤字。但是，人民币升值对美国经济影响的可能问题表现为短期和长期的人民币升值影响，汇率仅是诸多影响贸易往来的因素之一。下面讨论其他影响到双边贸易平衡的的因素。 人民币升值期间双边贸易赤字持续增长 为说明汇率仅是决定贸易往来的因素中其中一个，我们可以观察中美2005年7月至2008年7月人民币升值21%的影响。另一方面，美国在此期间，由中国的进口

8、增值39%，同比2001年至2004年增加了92%（当汇率保持不变时）。此外，美国2005年-2008年出口至中国的速度不及2001-2004年（71%比81%）。不管2005到2008年的人民币升值，尽管美国全体活期账户赤字下降近6%，美国同中国的贸易赤字仍然提高了30.1%。人民币升值似乎对中国2005到2008年的总体贸易平衡产生细微影响。在这段时间内，中国商品贸易顺差从1020亿美元增至2970亿美元，增加191%，中国活期存款账户结余和外汇储备积累在此期间均增加了165%本段翻译节选自：Chinas Currency: An Analysis of the Economic Issu

9、esWayne M. MorrisonSpecialist in Asian Trade and FinanceMarc LabonteSpecialist in Macroeconomic PolicyOctober 1, 2010 原文文献：SummaryMany economists have argued that RMB appreciation is an important factor in helping to rebalance the world economy. They have also urged China to implement policies to ma

10、ke consumer demand, rather than exports and fixed investment, the main sources of economic growth. Some see RMB appreciation as a way of boosting Chinas imports, which could contribute to a faster global economic recovery. While Chinese officials acknowledge the need to rebalance the economy, they h

11、ave strongly resisted international pressure to appreciate and reform the currency, calling it “protectionism.” Some attribute this policy to concerns by the Chinese government that implementing policy changes too rapidly could lead to social instability.While the Obama Administration has pushed Chi

12、na to appreciate its currency, it has also encouraged it to continue purchasing U.S. Treasury securities. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, which totaled $847 billion as of July 2010. Some analysts contend that, although an appreciation of Chinas currency could help bo

13、ost U.S. exports to China, it could also lessen Chinas need to buy U.S. Treasury securities, which could push up U.S. interest rates. It could result in higher prices of Chinese-made goods for U.S. consumers, as well as for Chinese-made inputs that U.S. firms use in their production. Many economists

14、 contend that, even if China significantly appreciated its currency, the United States would still need to increase its savings and reduce domestic demand (particularly the budget deficit), and China would have to lower its savings and increase consumption, in order to reduce trade imbalances in the

15、 long run.Historical Background on Chinas CurrencyPrior to 1994, China maintained a dual exchange rate system. This consisted of an official fixed exchange rate system (which was used by the government), and a relatively market-based exchange rate system that was used by importers and exporters in “

16、swap markets,” although access to foreign exchange was highly restricted in order to limit imports, resulting in a large black market for foreign exchange. The two exchange rates differed significantly. The official exchange rate with the dollar in 1993 was 5.77 yuan versus 8.70 yuan in the swap mar

17、kets. Chinas dual exchange rate system was criticized by the United States because of the restrictions it (and other policies) placed on foreign imports.In 1994, the Chinese government unified the two exchange rate systems at an initial rate of 8.70 yuan to the dollar, which eventually was allowed t

18、o rise to 8.28 by 1997 and was then kept relatively constant until July 2005. The RMB became largely convertible on a current account (trade) basis, but not on a capital account basis, meaning that yuan are not regularly obtainable for investment purposes. From 1994 until July 2005, China maintained

19、 a policy of pegging the RMB to the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of roughly 8.28 yuan to the dollar. The peg appears to have been largely intended to promote a relatively stable environment for foreign trade and investment in China (since such a policy prevents large swings in exchange rates)a po

20、licy utilized by many developing countries in their early development stages. The Chinese central bank maintained this peg by buying (or selling) as many dollar-denominated assets in exchange for newly printed yuan as needed to eliminate excess demand (supply) for the yuan. As a result, the exchange

21、 rate between the RMB and the dollar basically stayed the same, despite changing economic factors which could have otherwise caused the yuan to appreciate (or depreciate) relative to the dollar. Under a floating exchange rate system, the relative demand for the two countries goods and assets would d

22、etermine the exchange rate of the RMB to the dollar.Another factor to consider in attempting to evaluate the effects of an RMB appreciation on trade flows is to examine how price changes would be passed on or distributed. If the RMB appreciates against the dollar, not all of the price increase resul

23、ting from the appreciation may be passed on to the U.S. consumer. Some of it may be absorbed by Chinese laborers, producers, or exporters, and some by U.S. importers, wholesalers, retailers, etc. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, from July 2005 to July 2008, the price index for U.S. imports

24、 from China from July 2005 to July 2008, rose by 5.2% (compared to a 13.2% rise in import prices for total U.S. imports of non- petroleum products).46 This would suggest that very little of the price increase that might have resulted from the RMBs appreciation was passed on to U.S. consumers.47 If p

25、rices are not completely passed through to consumers, then consumer demand for Chinese imports will fall less than if they were, all else equal.Recent RMB DevelopmentsChinese leaders have expressed strong opposition to outside pressure on their currency policy, calling it a form of protectionism and

26、 interference in Chinas domestic economic policy, and some have even questioned whether the currency is undervalued at all. However, on June 19, 2010, the Chinese central bank, the Peoples Bank of China (PBC) stated that, based on current economic conditions, it had decided to “proceed further with

27、reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.” It ruled out any large one-time revaluations, stating “it is important to avoid any sharp and massive fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate,” in part so that Chinese corporations could more easily adjust (such

28、as through upgrading) to an appreciation of the currency. Many observers contend the timing of the RMB announcement was intended in part to prevent Chinas currency policy from being a central focus of the G-20 summit in Toronto from June 26-27, 2010.On June 22, 2010, the RMB appreciated by 0.43% aga

29、inst the dollar (to 6.80 yuan) over the previous day, which, at the time, was the largest daily rise since reforms were implemented in July 2005. However, on the following day (June 23) it depreciated to 6.81 yuan. As indicated in Figure 3, the yuans exchange rate with the dollar has gone up and dow

30、n over the past few months, but overall, it has appreciated by 1.9% through October 1, 2010, with most of that appreciation occurring in September. 3 Some analysts contend that the appreciation of the currency in September 2010 has had more to do with Chinese concerns over possible congressional act

31、ion on the currency than economic considerations.The Debate over the Effects of Exchange Rate Appreciation on Trade Flows and the DeficitMany policymakers might expect that if China significantly appreciated its currency, U.S. exports to China would rise, imports from China would fall, and the U.S.

32、trade deficit would decline within a relatively short period of time. For example, C. Fred Bergsten contends that a market- based RMB would lower the annual U.S. current account deficit by $100 billion to $150 billion. But the issue of the possible effects of an RMB appreciation on the U.S. economy

33、is complicated by the fact that there are short-term and long-term implications of RMB appreciation, and that exchange rates are but one of many factors that affect trade flows. Other factors affecting the bilateral trade balance are discussed below.The Bilateral Trade Deficit Continued to Grow duri

34、ng the Previous Period of RMB AppreciationTo illustrate that exchange rates are only one factor that determine trade flows, one can look at the effect of the 21% RMB appreciation of the RMB to the dollar from July 2005 to July 2008 on U.S.-China trade flows. On the one hand, during this period U.S.

35、imports from China increased by 39%, compared to a 92% increase from 2001 to 2004 (when the exchange rate remained constant).42 On the other hand, U.S. exports to China during the 2005-2008 period did not grow as fast as during the 2001-2004 period (71% versus 81%).43 Despite the RMBs appreciation f

36、rom 2005 to 2008, the U.S. trade deficit with China still rose by 30.1%, although the overall U.S. current account deficit declined by nearly 6%.44 The appreciation of the RMB appears to have little effect on Chinas overall trade balance from 2005 to 2008. During this time, Chinas merchandise trade surplus increased from $102 billion to $297 billion, an increase of 191%, and Chinas current account surplus and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves both increased by 165% over this period.