1、 目 录外文文献译文11.中国光伏发电的战略地位12.世界光伏产业现状和发展预测23.中国光伏发电市场和产业现状34.中国光复发电的市场预测和规划建议55.结论6外文文献原文71.Chinas strategic position PV 72.The worlds current situation and development of photovoltaic industry forecast93.The Chinese PV market and industry statu s104.Chinas PV market forecasting and planning proposals
2、135.Conclusions 15 外文文献译文1、中国光伏发电的战略地位1.1 中国的能源资源和可再生能源现状和预测;无论从世界还是从中国来看,常规能源都是很有限的,中国的一次能源储量远远低于世界的平均水平,大约只有世界总储量的10。从长远来看,可再生能源将是未来人类的主要能源来源,因此世界上多数发达国家和部分发展中国家都十分重视可再生能源对未来能源供应的重要作用。在新的可再生能源中,光伏发电和风力发电是发展最快的,世界各国都把太阳能光伏发电的商业化开发和利用作为重要的发展方向。根据欧洲JRC 的预测,到2030年太阳能发电将在世界电力的供应中显现其重要作用,达到10%以上,可再生能源在总
3、能源结构中占到30;2050 年太阳能发电将占总能耗的20%,可再生能源占到50以上,到本世纪末太阳能发电将在能源结构中起到主导作用。我国政府重视可再生能源技术的发展,主要有水能、风能、生物质能、太阳能、地热能和海洋能等。我国目前可再生能源的发展现状如下:水能:我国经济可开发的水能资源量为3.9 亿千瓦,年发电量1.7 万亿千瓦时,其中5 万千瓦及以下的小水电资源量为1.25 亿千瓦。到2003 年底,我国已建成水电发电装机容量9000 万千瓦,其中小水电容量3000 万千瓦。风能:我国濒临太平洋,季风强盛,海岸线长达18000 多公里,内陆还有许多山系,改变了气压的分布,形成了分布很广的风能
4、资源。根据全国气象台风能资料估算,我国陆地可开发装机容量约2.5 亿千瓦,海上风能资源量更大,可开发装机容量在7.5 亿千瓦,总共可开发装机容量10 亿千瓦。目前全国已建成并网风力发电装机容量57 万千瓦,此外,还有边远地区农牧民使用的小型风力发电机约18 万台,总容量约3.5 万千瓦。太阳能:目前太阳能利用方式主要有热利用和光电利用两种,到2003 年底,全国已安装光伏电池约5 万千瓦,主要为边远地区居民及交通、通讯等领域提供电,现在已开始进行并网光伏发电系统的试验和示范工作。全国已有太阳光伏电池及组装厂10 多家,制造能力超过2 万千瓦。到2003 年底,全国太阳热水器使用量为5200 万
5、平方米,约占全球使用量的40%,年生产量为1200 万平方米。 生物质能:生物质能主要有农、林生产及加工废弃物、工业废水和城市生活垃圾等。目前,全国农村已有户用沼气池1300 多万口,年产沼气约33 亿立方米;大中型沼气工程2200 多处,年产沼气约12 亿立方米;生物质发电装机容量200多万千瓦。其它可再生能源:除上述水能、风能、太阳能、生物质能外,还有地热能、海洋能等可再生能源资源。目前所占比例不大。我国目前新技术利用可再生能源(不含传统秸秆燃烧和5 万千瓦以上的大水电)总量为5000 万吨标煤,占能源消耗总量3。可再生能源是可循环利用的清洁能源,是满足人类社会可持续发展需要的最终能源选择
6、。目前,小水电、风电、太阳热水器和沼气等可再生能源技术已经成熟,生物质供气和发电技术也接近成熟,具有广阔的发展前景。预计今后20-30年内,可再生能源将逐步从弱小地位走向能源主角,将对经济和社会发展做出重大贡献。1.2 中国电力现状和未来电力缺口分析中国的电力供应在2000 年以前不紧张,2001 年以后,由于经济发展迅猛,电力需求以每年超过20的速度增长,2003 年全国出现电力供应严重不足的现象,电力供应的紧张情况在今后23 年内不会缓解。2002 年全国电力装机35657万千瓦,煤电占74.5,发电16542 亿千瓦时,煤电占81.7。按照目前的经济发展趋势和中国的资源情况,2010 年
7、和2020 年的电力供应单靠传统的煤、水、核是不够的,尚存在一定的缺口,需要由可再生能源发电来填补。2、世界光伏产业现状和发展预测太阳电池是利用材料的光生伏打效应直接将太阳能变成电能的半导体器件,也称光伏电池。1954 年,第一块实用的硅太阳电池(6)与第一座原子能发电站同时在美国诞生,1959 年太阳电池进入空间应用,1973 年能源危机后逐步转到地面应用。光伏发电分为独立光伏系统和并网光伏系统。独立光伏电站包括边远地区的村庄供电系统,太阳能户用电源系统,通信信号电源,阴极保护,太阳能路灯等各种带有蓄电池的可以独立运行的光伏发电系统。并网光伏发电系统是与电网相连并向电网馈送电力的光伏发电系统
8、。目前从技术上可以实现的光伏发电系统并网的方式有:屋定并网发电系统和沙漠电站系统。屋顶系统是利用现有建筑的屋顶有效面积,安装并网光伏发电系统,其规模一般在几个kWp 到几个 MWp 不等。沙漠电站则是在无人居住的沙漠地区开发建设大规模的并网光伏发电系统,其规模从10MWp 到几个GWp 的规模不等。近年来,世界太阳电池年产量迅速增加,连续8 年增速在30%左右,2004 年的年增长率甚至超过60%,达到1200MW。3、中国光伏发电市场和产业现状3.1 中国太阳电池的市场发展我国于1958 年开始研究太阳电池,于1971 年成功地首次应用于我国发射的东方红二号卫星上。于1973 年开始将太阳电
9、池用于地面。我国的光伏工业在80年代以前尚处于雏形,太阳电池的年产量一直徘徊在10KW 以下,价格也很昂贵。由于受到价格和产量的限制,市场的发展很缓慢,除了作为卫星电源,在地面上太阳电池仅用于小功率电源系统,如航标灯、铁路信号系统、高山气象站的仪器用电、电围栏、黑光灯、直流日光灯等,功率一般在几瓦到几十瓦之间。在“六五”(19811985)和“七五”(19861990)期间,国家开始对光伏工业和光伏市场的发展给以支持,中央和地方政府在光伏领域投入了一定资金,使得我国十分弱小的太阳电池工业得到了巩固并在许多应用领域建立了示范,如微波中继站、部队通信系统、水闸和石油管道的阴极保护系统、农村载波电话
10、系统、小型户用系统和村庄供电系统等。同时,在“七五”期间,国内先后从国外引进了多条太阳电池生产线,除了一条1MW 的非晶硅电池生产线外,其它全是单晶硅电池生产线,使得我国太阳电池的生产能力猛增到4.5MWp/年,售价也由“七五”初期的80 元/Wp 下降到40 元/Wp 左右。九十年代以后,随着我国光伏产业初步形成和成本降低,应用领域开始向工业领域和农村电气化应用发展,市场稳步扩大,并被列入国家和地方政府计划,如西藏“阳光计划”、“光明工程”、“西藏阿里光伏工程”、光纤通讯电源、石油管道阴极保护、村村通广播电视、大规模推广农村户用光伏电源系统等。进入21 世纪,特别是近3 年的“送电到乡”工程
11、,国家投资20 亿,安装20MW,解决了我国800 个无电乡镇的用电问题,推动了我国光伏市场快速、大幅度增长。与此同时,并网发电示范工程开始有较快发展,从5kW、10kW 发展到100kW 以上,2004 年深圳世博园1MW 并网发电工程成为我国光伏应用领域的亮点。截止2004 年底,我国光伏系统的总装机容量约达到65MW。深圳、汕头、广州和浙江等地,大量出口太阳能庭院灯,年销售额达5 亿之多。庭院灯用的电池片通常进口,然后用胶封装,工艺简单。所用电池片每年达6MW 之多,是太阳电池应用的一个大户(这部分未入统计)。3.2 中国太阳电池的产业化现状 上世纪七十年代末到八十年代中,我国一些半导体
12、器件厂开始利用半导体工业废次单晶和半导体器件工艺生产单晶硅太阳电池,我国光伏工业进入萌发时期。八十年代中后期,我国一些企业引进成套单晶硅电池和组件生产设备,以及非晶硅电池生产线,使我国光伏电池组件总生产能力达到4.5MW,我国光伏产业初步形成。九十年代初中期,我国光伏产业处于稳定发展时期,生产量逐年稳步增加。九十年代末我国光伏产业发展较快,设备不断更新。2003 年、2004 年在我国送电到乡工程及国际市场推动下,一批电池生产线、组件封装线、晶硅锭硅片生产线相继投产和扩产,使我国光伏产业的能力有大幅度上升,我国光伏产业进入全面快速发展时期。截止2004 年底,我国光伏产业总的年生产能力为:组件
13、150MW,电池生产67MW,硅锭硅片生产54MW;生产量约为组件100MW,电池42MW(其中非晶硅4MW),硅锭硅片46MW。最近3 年由于送电到乡工程和国际市场的推动,我国太阳电池组件生产迅速增长,2004 年的产量是2002 年的6 倍。电池和组件性能不断提高,商业化电池效率由八十年代的1012提高到1214。太阳电池组件成本20 年来不断降低,售价由八十年代初的6570 元Wp 降到2003 年的2428 元Wp,2004 年由于太阳级硅国际性紧缺,售价又回升到2832 元Wp。2004 年我国太阳电池的实际产量达到50MWp,国内光伏市场消化掉不到10MWp 的光伏组件,产品绝大部
14、分出口到国外。虽然我国光伏产业发展迅速,产业规模和技术水平都有相应提高。但同发达国家相比,仍存在很大差距,如:专用原材料国产化程度不高,品种不全,已经实现国产化的材料和部件,其性能比国外偏低,如银、铝浆、EVA 等。组件封装低铁绒面玻璃、TPT 尚未投放市场。光伏产业链上游小、下游大的不平衡状态,其中最严重的是太阳级多晶硅生产是空白,完全依赖进口。其它环节的差额部分需要进口,如电池片、硅锭硅片,配套材料等。产业设备设计水平和制造能力落后。多晶硅铸造炉、线锯、破锭机完全需要进口;PECVD 氮化硅沉积设备、丝网印刷机、电池片分选机、串联焊接机等性能均不能满足现代化生产需要。这些设备都需要全套引进
15、,等等。这些差距同研发基础和工业基础薄弱有关。企业通过引进消化吸收能够在短时间内建立起现代光伏产业,但配套的专用材料和设备一时还跟不上,其中太阳级多晶硅材料尤其突出。国家应组织光伏产业同化工、机电设备制造产业联合攻关,同时积极寻求国际合作,以太阳能级硅为切入点,避开半导体级硅的技术封锁。4、中国光复发电的市场预测和规划建议4.1 “十一、五”建设重点布局“十一、五”期间,应把实施农村离网光伏发电计划,落实开阔地(荒漠)大型并网光伏电站先导项目以及“中心城市建筑光伏并网”计划作为重点。对于光伏商业化发展也给予政策方面的积极扶持和支持。4.1.1. 农村离网光伏发电计划我国还有大约28,000 个
16、村庄,7 百万户,3,000 万人口无电。这些无电人口大都分布在我国西部地区和一些海岛,其中一些无电村庄使用柴油发电机发电,每日供电23 小时;有些连柴油发电机也没有,只能点酥油灯、煤油灯和蜡烛照明。这些无电地区有很丰富的太阳能资源,光伏发电在这样的地区有广阔的市场前景。无电乡的供电问题已经通过“送电到乡”工程基本解决。还有无电村和无电户需要解决供电问题。如果每个无电村按照10KWp,每个无电户按照400Wp 规划,再考虑到已建电站的扩容,则潜在市场大约是3,000 MWp。从目前的国力和政策看,2010 年以前,争取全部解决西部50 户以上的无电村和15%的散居无电户的用电问题,2006-2
17、010 年间,争取解决10000 个无电村和100 万无电户的用电问题,新增光伏用量265MWp,累计用于农村电气化的太阳电池达到300 MWp.4.1.2. 开阔地大型并网光伏电站建设从目前的国力和政策看,2010 年以前,应先开展开阔地大型光伏电站试验,所选择的试验地点应当具备如下条件:靠近主干电网(最好在50 公里以内),以减少新增输电线路的投资;主干电网具有足够的承载能力,在不改造的情况下有能力输送光伏电站的电力;距离用电负荷中心在100 公里以内,以减少输电损失;如果附近没有用电负荷中心,则最好有大型水电站,可以将光伏电站的电力通过抽水蓄能转换。规划在2010 年以前建立23 座10
18、20MWp 左右的开阔地(荒漠)先导示范电站,总装机达到30MWp,以实验其技术和经济的可行性。20102020 年正式启动中国开阔地(荒漠)光伏电站计划,争取2010-2020年新增光伏电站装机11,970MWp,到2020 年底累计开阔地(荒漠)光伏电站装机12GWp。5、结论1、中国有很好的太阳能资源,有足够的建筑屋顶和沙漠荒漠资源,具有大规模发展光伏发电的条件;2、光伏将在中国未来的电力供应中扮演重要角色,预计中国光伏工业将以每年不低于40 的速度增长;3、当前中国光伏工业和光伏市场发展很快,但存在“头小尾大”不平衡的问题,不解决高纯多晶硅原材料和硅片生产的问题,中国光伏工业的发展就会
19、受到限制;4、中国光伏工业发展的关键在于政策。如果中国的“可再生能源促进法”得以实施,仿效德国的成功经验,中国光伏事业发展的资金障碍是可以消除的。外文文献原文1.Chinas strategic position PV1.1 Chinas energy resources and renewable sources of energy status and forecasts; Whether from the world or from China, the conventional energy sources are limited, Chinas primary energy rese
20、rves are far below the world average level, the worlds total reserves of only about 10%. In the long run, renewable energy will be the future of mankinds main energy source, so the worlds most developed countries and some developing countries have attached great importance to the future of renewable
21、 energy an important role in energy supply. In new and renewable energy sources, the photovoltaic power generation and wind power is the fastest growing countries in the world solar photovoltaic their commercial development and use of as an important direction of development. According to the Europe
22、an JRC forecasts, by 2030 solar power will supply electricity in the world of its important role in the show, reaching more than 10% renewable energy in total energy mix in the account for 30%; in 2050 will account for the total solar energy 20%, renewable energy accounted for more than 50% of the e
23、nd of this century solar energy structure will play a leading role. Chinese Government attaches great importance to the development of renewable energy technologies, mainly hydropower, wind energy, biomass, solar, geothermal and ocean energy. Chinas current development of renewable sources of energy
24、 status are as follows: Water: Chinas economy to develop water resources for 390 million kilowatts, an annual generation capacity of 1.7 trillion kwh, of which 50,000 kilowatts and small hydropower resources of 125 million kilowatts. By the end of 2003, Chinas hydropower generation capacity have bee
25、n completed and 90 million kilowatts, of which the capacity of small hydropower 30 million kilowatts. Wind Energy: Chinas endangered Pacific, strong winds, more than 18,000 km long coastline, inland there are many mountains, changed the distribution of pressure, forming a very broad distribution of
26、wind energy resources. According to the National Meteorological wind data is estimated that Chinas installed capacity of the land can be developed about 250 million kilowatts, a greater amount of wind energy resources at sea, to develop 750 million kilowatts in installed capacity, the development of
27、 a total installed capacity of one billion kilowatts. Currently, network has been built and installed capacity of wind power 570,000 kilowatts, in addition to the use of farmers and herdsmen in remote areas of the small wind turbine about 18 million units, with a total capacity of about 35,000 kilow
28、atts. Solar: The solar thermal utilization are mainly two kinds of access to and use of optoelectronics, the end of 2003, China has installed photovoltaic cells of about 50,000 kilowatts, mainly residents of remote areas and transportation, communication and other areas to provide electricity, and h
29、as now started PV power system network testing and demonstration work. There are solar photovoltaic cells and more than 10 assembly plants, manufacturing capacity more than 20,000 kilowatts. By the end of 2003, the national capacity of solar water heaters use 52 million square meters, about the glob
30、al usage of 40%, the annual production capacity of 12 million square meters. Biomass: Biomass mainly in agriculture, forestry production and processing of waste, industrial waste and municipal solid waste and so on. At present, household biogas digesters in rural areas have been 10,000 more than 130
31、0, an annual output of about 3.3 billion cubic meters of methane; 2200 a number of large and medium-sized biogas project and has an annual output of about 1.2 billion cubic meters of methane; installed capacity of biomass power generation more than 200 million kW. Other renewable sources of energy:
32、In addition to the above water, wind, solar, biomass, there are geothermal energy, ocean energy and other renewable energy resources. At present, the proportion is not. Chinas current use of new technologies of renewable energy (excluding traditional straw combustion and more than 50,000 kilowatts o
33、f large hydropower) a total of 50 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 3% of the total energy consumption. Renewable energy is clean energy recycling, is to meet the needs of sustainable development of human society, the ultimate energy options. At present, small hydropower, wind power, sol
34、ar water heaters and gas and other renewable energy technologies have matured, biomass gas and power generation technology is approaching maturity, there are broad prospects for development. The next 20-30 years, renewable energy will gradually move from the weak position of the protagonist of energ
35、y, economic and social development will make a significant contribution to。1.2 Chinas power status and future electricity gap analysis Chinas electricity supply in 2000 did not tense, since 2001, due to the rapid economic development, the demand for electricity to more than 20% of the annual growth
36、rate in 2003, a serious shortage of power supply to the phenomenon of tight electricity supply in the next 2 -3 years will not ease. 2002 installed 356.57 million kilowatts of electricity, coal accounted for 74.5%, 1.6542 trillion kwh electricity, coal accounted for 81.7%. According to the current e
37、conomic development trends and Chinas resources, in 2010 and 2020 rely on the traditional power supply of coal, water, nuclear is not enough, there are some gaps, the need for power generation from renewable energy sources to fill.2.The worlds current situation and development of photovoltaic indust
38、ry forecast Solar cells is the use of the material effects of photovoltaic solar energy into electrical energy directly to the semiconductor devices, also known as photovoltaic cells. In 1954, the first practical silicon solar cells ( = 6%) and the first atomic power station at the same time in the
39、United States was born in 1959 into the space solar cell applications, the energy crisis in 1973 after the application step by step to the ground. Photovoltaic power generation is divided into independent grid photovoltaic systems and photovoltaic systems. Independent PV power station, including the
40、 villages in remote areas the power supply system, solar household power system, communications, signal power, cathodic protection, such as solar street lamps with batteries can run independently of the photovoltaic power generation system. Grid PV system is connected with the power grid to feed ele
41、ctricity grid PV power system. Currently technically achievable grid PV power system in the way: housing fixed-grid system and power plant system of the desert. Use of the existing roof system is the effective area of the roof construction, installation and network of photovoltaic power generation s
42、ystem, the size of a few kWp generally ranging from several MWp. Desert power plant is uninhabited desert area in the development and construction of large-scale photovoltaic power generation systems and networks, the size of several GWp from the 10MWp size. In recent years, the rapid increase in so
43、lar cell production, for 8 years in 30% growth in 2004, even more than the annual growth rate of 60 percent, reaching 1200MW.3.The Chinese PV market and industry status3.1 Chinas solar market development China started research on solar cells in 1958, in 1971, China successfully launched the first ap
44、plies to the 2nd satellite Dongfanghong. Started in 1973 for ground-based solar cells. Chinas photovoltaic industry in 80 years ago is still in embryonic form, the annual production of solar cells has been hovering below 10KW, price is also very expensive. As a result of restrictions on prices and p
45、roduction, market development is very slow, and apart from, as the satellite power supply, on the ground only for low-power solar power systems, such as beacon lights, railway signal systems, weather station equipment alpine electricity, electricity Wai field, black light, fluorescent lamps, such as
46、 DC power is normally a few watts to tens of watts. In the 65 (1981-1985) and 75 (1986-1990), the countries of photovoltaic PV industry and to give support for the development of the market, the central and local governments invested in the photovoltaic certain funds, makes a very weak solar industr
47、y has been consolidated and applied in many areas of the model, such as microwave relay stations, communications system units, gates and oil pipeline cathodic protection systems, rural carrier telephone system, small households and villages with power supply system systems. At the same time, 75 period, the domestic has introduced from abroad a number of solar cell production line, in addition to the amorphous silicon, a 1MW battery production line, the other is single crystal silicon cell production line, making Chinas solar cell production capacity
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