项目风险管理 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献.doc

1、外文翻译As one of the important subjects of project management originated the First World War, and now it has been becoming more and more systematic and professional. In China the systematic project risk management framework was developed by the end of last century, but the practical application of proj

2、ect risk management still needs further improvement. With above background, this thesis focused on the medium or large real estate project, research project character, project management, typical Chinese construction project process, risk management, and project risk management. The first chapter br

3、iefed the current international and domestic study status of the subject, thesis purpose, and thesis scope, which are risk and its countermeasures research for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. The second chapter briefed the concept and character of real estate project

4、, risk of project, and project risk management, which is the theoretical foundation of further risk management study for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. Chapter3,4 and 5 are the project risk management practice on the implementation phase of medium or large real esta

5、te project. Chapter 3 is for project engineering risk management, which introduced the concept, purpode, and principle of project engineering at the beginning, and then analyzed the engineering objective, including schedule, cost, and quality, at last it identified and analyzed the project engineeri

6、ng risks and provided design change procedure and design company selection procedure as the risk response. Chapter 4 detailed the concept, principle, objective and key roles of project procurement, identified and assessed the project procurement risk, and also provided contractor selection procedure

7、, vendor selection procedure, examples of procurement plans to response and monitor project risk. Chapter 5 firstly introduced the construction concept, character, process and project construction objectives, including quality objective, schedule objective, and safety objective, and then identified

8、and assessed construction quality risk, schedule risk, cost risk and safety risk, The postscript of this thesis briefed the dynamic project risk management concept, restriction and limitation of this thesis, and opportunities for further research. Totally there are 14 appendixes attached after the t

9、hesis. These appendixes could be used as guidance and reference of risk management for real estate project. They are provided to be very useful in term of risk management for real estate project implementation phases. Project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which informat

10、ion will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and ac

11、tivity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame. These forecasts are hypotheses abstract form the similar project

12、 performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the plan to real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, cons

13、ume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage is process not only to form the real proprirty but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the m

14、anager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response plan according to the condition. This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision under

15、 risk condition in the implement stage of construction project. This thesis begins with the knowledge system of project management, analyses the whole course of risk management and sets forth the method and program of project risk identification, risk appraisement and risk monitoring in project minu

16、tely. Finally, It shows a risk case of building project focal point for the investment decision of early stage with qualitative and quantitative analysis. Chapter 1 Discuss the important concept, method and knowledge system of project risk management, such as the definition of project, the knowledge

17、 system of project management PMBOKX the intension of risk, the content of risk management and so on ,carry out the risk analysis of building project emphatically. Chapter 2 Mainly introduce the tool and technology of project risk identification, such as checking table, the rules of systems analysis

18、(WBS), the method of SWOT technology. Thinking of the demerit for every tool, hence author emphasize that we should appraise the gained information resource synthetically. Chapter 3 Explain how to go on the estimation and assessment of project risk, put forward the tool and technology of project ris

19、k analysis (as AHP, probability and sensitivity analysis ). When analyzing project risk quantitatively, first we should have definite warranty, do not surmise risk without foundation; Secondly, distinguish confirmed project from unconfirmed project in quantitative analysis. When using two important

20、tools of quantitative risk analysisprobability and sensitivity analysis, one side is to estimate the probability of risk variable exactly; the other side is to judge and analyze the guidelines of probability analysis truly, as square margin, expected figure, disperse modulus. Through quantifying ris

21、k, it can strengthen our sense of risk management. Chapter 4 Elaborate the basic method of monitoring project risk. In order to carry into execution monitoring project risk, it is essential to establish perfect replying risk plan. The main steps is: lessening risk, take precautions against risk (as

22、project method, instructing method, program method), conveying risk selling, inviting public bidding, the contract of absolving obligation, insurance and guarantee), avoidance, leave behind and measure in support. Chapter 5 A risk management example. First, analyze the various possible existent risk

23、 factors of this project systematically. Secondly, study its sensitivity factor thorough quantifying assessment risk for the project, as well as establishing and putting in practice a plan in order to control the negative influence in minimum level. The building has total 130500 square in architectu

24、ral area, superior geographical location and tremendously potential value, its overall investment is 4.26 hundreds million. This chapter first studies the market from place environment all around traffic and market requirement, then analyzes systematically financing risk and organic risk of joint ve

25、nture. On the basis of foregoing analysis, it establishes some parameter of risk quantifying analysis, calculates its selling revenue running expense and cash flow form, uses sensitivity analysis to gain best sensitivity factor. As the uncertain essence of risk, it is extremely important to analyze

26、probability factor of the project. So we confirm the probability form of every variable, then calculate present value of each possible event according to different constitutes of risk variable; and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative p

27、robability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision. Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk manag

28、ement to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basis International project contracting is rather a complex project in the cooperation of international economy and technology, and the implementing of the projects will be influenced by p

29、olitical, economy and social situations Firstly, this paper systemically analyzed the market situation of the international project contracting, and concretely analyzed the market structure in Asia, America, Africa and Europe. It concluded the trend of the development of the international contractin

30、g market; projects are becoming large-scale and complex and the contracting pattern is diversified, and the management of the international project contracting is standardized. Secondly, this paper analyzed the development status and characteristic of the international project contracting in our cou

31、ntry. Although the internationalization tendency of our countrys international project contracting firm is preferable, there is large gap in the whole strength when compared with firms from the developed countries, and also there are limitations in the distributing of the projects in different regio

32、ns and industries. Thirdly, this paper summarized the technique of international project contracting risk identification, estimate and appraise in our country. Put forward to finance and non-finance risk treating means, and apply the energy release theory to international project contracting risk ma

33、nagement, and research the dominating risk in the bid phase and construction and build the energy release model of each phrase. In the cases of Kun River Hydroelectric Station Project in Vietnam and Aromatic Plant Shali Irrigation Project in Nepal, this paper put forward to the technique of the inte

34、rnational project contracting risk identification, estimation, appraise and reply in dealing with the project risk. Finally, in the risk estimation and risk appraise, this paper paid attention to evaluate the losing caused by the risk exactly; in the risk reply ,give attention to two aspects of cost

35、 and return, look after the economic and logical risk reply measure, in order to make the project risk least, the operating of companies most efficiently and the return highest外文翻译项目风险管理作为项目管理的重要内容之一，起源于第一次世界大战之后。在20世纪50年代受到欧美各国的普遍重视和广泛应用。特别是20世纪80年代以后，随着高新技术的快速发展以及经济全球化，项目风险管理的研究也越来越系统化，专业化。在我国，直到2

36、0世界末才建立了比较系统的项目风险管理框架，但将项目风险管理应用与工程项目，应用于房地产开发，还有待进一步加强。另一方面，近年来大量外资项目进入中国，带来了先进完善的项目管理和风险管理的系统和方法，这些外资公司也需要正确地预测和管理在中国投资的工程项目的风险。本论文正是在以上背景下，以大中型房地产项目为对象，研究项目的特点，房地产项目的特点，项目管理的基本理论，我国基本建设程序，风险理论和项目风险管理理论，进而利用项目风险管理理论，通过风险识别，风险分析，风险应对，风险监控等步骤来研究大中型房地产项目实施阶段的项目风险和应对措施。本文前两章为课题研究的背景和理论基础，第一章介绍了本课题的国内外

37、现状，课题的意义和课题的研究范围。本课题以大中型房地产项目为对象，重点研究项目实施阶段的项目设计，采购，施工的风险和应对措施。第二章对大中型房地产项目的风险和项目风险管理进行简单介绍，为大中型房地产项目实施阶段风险管理研究打下理论基础。在介绍风险理论时，应用了风险因素的交互理论来理解风险的本质，即风险是损害和暴露度两种因素的结合。在研究项目风险管理的流程是，将项目实施阶段风险管理划分为风险识别，风险分析，风险应对，风险监控四个步骤，并对每个步骤的依据，方法，和结果做了介绍。本文第三章，第四章和第五章是项目风险理论在大中型房地产项目实施阶段风险管理的应用。第三章是工程设计阶段的风险管理，首先研究

38、了项目工程涉及的含义，作用和原则以及工程设计的进度，费用，质量三大目标。然后应用风险要素的交互理论和项目风险管理理论来研究大中型房地产项目设计阶段的风险因素，最后确定设计变更和设计单位的选择等工程设计阶段的主要风险因素，并制定相应的应对措施。第四章是大中型房地产项目采购阶段的风险管理，也是通过研究项目采购的含义，原则，作用，目标和关键角色来识别和分析项目采购阶段的主要风险因素，并制定承包商和供应商评选程序来缓解风险，也介绍项目采购计划的制定方法和内容，并给出了示例。第五章是大中型房地产项目施工阶段的风险管理，首先介绍了项目施工的含义，施工活动的特征，施工过程以及项目施工的质量，进度，成本，安全

39、四大目标，然后用风险要素的交互理论和项目风险管理理论来识别和分析项目施工阶段的主要风险因素，制定相应的风险应对和监控措施，最后提供了材料审批，施工方案审核，施工设备检查，现场变更控制，技术问题澄清，施工安全管理和安全监察分析等控制程序，并介绍了项目规划的施工报建要求，作为示例，也提供了房地产项目设备调试阶段的项目风险跟踪表。本文结束语部分介绍了项目风险管理的动态要求以及本课题的局限性。本文的14个附录是项目实施阶段风险应对和监控的示例，要求和管理程序。这些程序已经在我所承担的项目中实际运用，并被证明有效地缓解项目实施阶段的风险。管理就是一个在信息不断进入的多阶段活动中进行优化决策的过程，其关键

40、在于对风险应对方案的选择。本文采用规范研究的方法，以系统理论为指导，将期权定价理论与项目风险管理理论相结合，分析工程项目实施阶段的管理过程，在与相关文献对比的基础上分析工程项目实施阶段活动。在建立分析框架的基础上重点分析风险条件下的应对方案的选择这一决策问题。由于应对方案的实施会改变项目结果的分布，简单地采用项目原折现率对期望值折现来对应对方案进行评价已不再适用。通过对应对方案的性质的分析并结合实物期权的理论，本文认为风险应对方案应该看作是一种衍生于项目的实物期权，应该使用期权定价方法对其投入进行衡量。在对实物期权法的计算过程进行分析的基础上，指出由于未考虑活动引起的成本变化而无法实现其所计算

41、的项目价值增加。在分析期权定价原来的基础上，提出以单位风险价格作为应对方案的评价指标，并证明在某些特定的市场条件下，应用实物期权的分析方法确实可以发现一个最优的应对方案。本文对指导工程项目的投资者/管理者如何在项目实施阶段建立一个风险管理体系并正确做出风险决策有一定的参考价值。本文从项目管理的知识体系入手，分析了项目风险管理的全过程，对项目风险识别，风险评价，风险监控的程序和方法进行了较详尽的阐述。最后，通过一个建设项目案例重点对投资项目前期决策的风险作了定量和定性的分析。第一章论述了项目风险管理的重要概念，方法和知识体系，如项目的界定，项目管理的知识体系（PMBOK），风险的内涵及风险管理的

42、内容等等，并着重进行了工程建设项目的风险分析。第二章主要介绍了项目风险识别的工具和技术。如核对表，系统分析法（WBS），SWOT技术等方法。考虑到每种方法都有其局限性，因此作者强调应对获取的信息资源进行综合评审。第三章说明了如何进行项目风险的估计和评估，提出了项目风险分析的工具和技术（如AHP，概率和敏感性分析法）。在进行项目定量风险分析时，首先要有明确的依据，不能凭空臆测：其次应区分清确定性项目和不确定性项目定量分析的方法。在应用定量风险分析的两种重要工具概率和敏感性分析法时，一是要准确估计出风险变量的概率；二是对概率分析指标，如方差，期望值，离散系数等进行准确的评判和分析。通过风险的量化，

43、可以强化我们风险管理的意识。第四章阐述了项目风险监控的基本方法。为了更好地实施项目风险监控，制定完善的风险应对计划是必要的，其措施主要有：减轻风险，预防风险（如工程法，教育法，程序法），转移风险（出售，发包，开脱责任合同，保险与担保），回避，自留，后各措施。第五章为风险管理实例。首先系统地分析了该项目可能存在的各种风险因素，然后就其敏感性因素进行了较为深入的定量研究，达到量化评估风险对项目的潜在影响，已经制定并实施计划以便将消极影响控制在最低程度的目的。该项目总建筑面积13.05万米，总投资4.26亿元人民币，地理位置优越，升值潜力巨大。本章首先从地段，周边环境，交通和市场需求等诸多方面对该项

44、目进行了市场调研，然后对该项目在融资风险和合资的组织风险进行了系统的分析。在上述分析的基础上，确立了项目风险定量分析的有关参数，计算了项目的销售收入，经营成本及现金流量表，进行了项目敏感性分析，得出最敏感性因素。由于风险不确定性的本质，对项目敏感性因素进行概率分析是极其重要的。因此首先确定了变量的概率分布；然后根据风险变量的不同组合计算出各个可能事件的净现值；并对各个可能事件按净现值的由小到大排序，计算出净现值大于零的累积概率、方差及离散系数，从而定量地分析了项目的风险，为管理者决策时提供了量化支持。与国际先进水平相比，我国目前在项目风险管理理论如何应用到项目管理实践这个环节上还有很大差距，尤

45、其缺乏对项目风险管理的系统研究。本文在较系统地研究了项目分析管理的基础上在风险的定量分析上提出了自己的一点见解，以期达到解决实际问题的目的。国际工程承包是一项极其复杂的国际经济技术合作项目，工程项目实施受政治、经济、社会等多重因素的影响。本文首先系统分析了国际工程承包市场的状况，具体分析了亚洲、美洲、非洲以及肉粥市场的市场格局，总结了国际承包市场发展趋势：工程规模大型化、复杂化；承发包方式多样化；国际工程承包管理规范化。其次，本文分析了我国国际工程承包的发展状况和特点。指出虽然我国国际工程承包公司的国际化发展势头较好，但整体实力与发达国家的公司还有相当大的差距，在承包工程的地区以及行业分布上也

46、比较局限，我国国家工程承包商自身的特点决定了我国国际工程承包面临相当大的风险。之后，本文系统总结了我国国际工程承包风险的识别、刚iji、评价方法，提出财务手段和非财务手段的国际工程承保风险应对策略，并对能量释放理论应用于国际工程风险管理，研究了投标阶段和施工阶段的主要风险，建立了国际承包工程投标阶段和施工阶段的能量释放模型。本文还结合越南昆山水电站工程和尼泊尔孙莎里灌溉工程实例，提出了我国国际工程承包商在处理国际工程承包风险的过程中，运用多种识别、估计、评价、应对的风险管理方法。最后本文从力争全面考虑各种风险；准确估计风险造成的损失；兼顾成本，收益两方面因素，寻求经济合理等方面提出了降低国际工程承包风险，提高企业经营效率的风险应对措施。 . .此处忽略！